Miller Saturday 5-20

morey · Post by **morey** » Fri May 19, 2006 9:16 am

The ADDS is calling for light SW through launch level. The BAK40 (MAPS) soundings model is calling for due north at 10kts. So, whatcha' gonna' do.

I'm calling for thermals pumping of the face of Miller. Let's go.

Guest · Post by **Guest** » Fri May 19, 2006 11:26 am

Miller looks very unlikly, much like two weeks ago. The building high pressure and predicted west wind will make for down the canyon early.
How about Box, or we could go to Miller and then to Box, either way we will have a real good chance of end up at Box.

Eric

Guest · Post by **Guest** » Fri May 19, 2006 12:02 pm

One other possibility The Lemon?
North wind will fill the canyon and this site will take a west wind.

Eric

morey · Post by **morey** » Fri May 19, 2006 4:30 pm

As of Friday at 4:25, the upper air soundings models are showing a very light NW to SSW flow for tomorrow at 12N (1900Z). The ADDS is showing very light SW.

Frankly, I'm jealous of your flights there last weekend and wanna' go.

Keep your eye on the weather. It may still be good at Miller.

jlowery · Post by **jlowery** » Fri May 19, 2006 5:26 pm

I wasn't sure earlier because of work, but I'll be able to come out and play, too.

So what'll it be, Miller, Mt. Lemmon or Box? You guys decide, I'll show up.

Eric, we can take my truck if you'd like. If it's a big crew I'll throw on with you.

Please post the plans and the show time, I'm taking Lorraine to a movie but will check back later.

John

slinger · Post by **slinger** » Fri May 19, 2006 6:40 pm

I'm game for anywhere that will get me in the air Saturday ... Mt Lemon sounds especially fun!

Justin

Gunter · Post by **Gunter** » Fri May 19, 2006 7:51 pm

Keep me posted and early enough so i can join, if there is any chance for PG's (although it looks too strong for Box-for Pg's) and Miller wrong direction?.
Gunter

morey · Post by **morey** » Fri May 19, 2006 9:53 pm

As of Fri 9:45 pm, I'm looking at 3 different models for Miller (FHU) at launch altitude and a bit above. One says <5kt from the SW and W, all the way up. Another says 11-13 from the due north, and another says 8kt from the NW.

morey · Post by **morey** » Sat May 20, 2006 6:22 am

Here's the 11am prediction

FHU(F9) 1800 20/05/06
Op40 9h Forecast, 20-May-2006 18:00:00 (8.1nm/345° from FHU)

CAPE = 0.0 J/Kg, CIn = -24.0 J/Kg, PW = 14.0 Kg/m^2
TT = 50.0 KI = 23.0 LI = 1.0 SI = 0.0 SW = 56.0
LCL = 624.0

P_alt mb t/td w_dir/w_spd
(ft) (°C) (kts)

4593 862 28.9/2.100 69°/003
4656 860 27.4/2.100 69°/003
4777 857 26.9/2.000 70°/003
4961 851 26.3/1.800 70°/003
4993 850 26.2/1.800 71°/003
5207 844 25.5/1.700 70°/003
5577 833 24.3/1.300 70°/003
5951 822 23.2/0.900 69°/003
6329 811 22.0/0.500 62°/003
6713 801 20.9/0.000 46°/002
7096 790 19.7/-0.50 20°/002
7487 779 18.6/-1.10 9°/002
7881 768 17.4/-1.80 359°/003
8278 757 16.2/-2.60 350°/003
8678 746 15.1/-3.60 342°/004
9085 735 13.9/-4.40 337°/005

morey · Post by **morey** » Sun May 21, 2006 5:43 pm

We arrived at Box launch with dreams of big air in our heads. Cloudbase was at 16Kft or so, nice thermals coming straight up the face, the soaring forecast, and soundings report indicated no inversions or strong winds. This was destined to be a near perfect flying day, with easy launch conditions, steadily rising thermals and some easy XC.

Justin did the grand tour of extra driving, and scouted out the front LZ- a wise decision given its potential pitfalls. The rest of us, Eric, John, Jason and I went straight to launch. Eric launched first, about 2:30, and quickly rose above launch in what looked like light and moderately smooth conditions. However, he didn't sky-out. From about 7kft, he ventured over towards the PG peak, and got seriously drilled. Uh-oh, thought those of us watching the display from launch: "Southwest". But, we figured, on such a stellar day, Eric would come back, eventually catch an elevator ride, and the SW issue would be quickly put to bed. Eric gave it a couple tries towards the PG launch with no success, and then ventured to the SW facing slopes north of launch. A perfect place to get up, with sun blazing on the windward hillsides. Sadly- we never saw him catch anything, but he did manage to make the LZ down below for a safe touchdown. Drat.

The rest of us waited on launch seemingly forever in the heat, and Jason took his shot at it, as we thought it was finally turning west. Jason had a nice launch and headed straight to the main PG ridge to get above it and catch thermals rising from the SW side. However, a cloud seemed to shut things down for him, and he was in the LZ with Eric in short order.

I scratched my head (and other places). What to do? With regular wind reports from the LZ indicating that strong SW gusts were coming through, John began to break down. The sacrifice to the wind gods began to have an effect, and Eric reported intermittent Westerlie and NW breezes. But moments later, a strong SW would appear. Even launch was at times strongly cross from the South. So, I began to break down. Then Eric's reports came in more positive, so I began to re-set up.

Hooked in and on launch, things looked good. Eric was reporting due west in the LZ. Launch conditions were perfect. The clouds were clearing... Then Eric would report that the sock on the 1st knoll was cracking from the SW and another SW gust was coming through the LZ. After much ado and aggravation, I broke down as well. Thanks for all the wind reports Eric. The risk vs. reward ratio just wasn't promising.

Bummer of a day for all involved. But, at least everyone stayed safe.

Miller Saturday 5-20

I'm in

looks perfect for miller as of 6am

Flight Report (longer than flights)